In the chaotic, unprecedented 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton has emerged as the clear national polling front-runner with just over three months until Election Day, according to multiple post-convention polls and new tracking from Fox News Channel. At least, for now.
The FNC poll, released Wednesday, shows the former secretary of state with a 10-point cushion over Donald Trump, who has been the subject of widespread media ridicule since the Republican National Convention two weeks ago.
Clinton leads Trump 49-39 among 2,490 registered voters nationwide, the FNC poll shows, with Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson holding 12 percent. Clinton’s lead over Trump has expanded five points in the last week in FNC polling. Her current advantage is well outside the poll’s three percent margin of error.
Possibly telling of the shift, the FNC poll also asked respondents to label Trump’s response to the Gold Star Khan family as “in bounds” or “out of bounds,” with a bi-partisan split of 69 percent calling the act “out-of-bounds.” Only 19 percent supported the GOP nominee’s stance.
Fivethirtyeight.com‘s polls-plus forecast, which correctly and accurately predicted the last two presidential elections, tabs Clinton an almost 70 percent favorite to win the presidency as of Aug. 3. Just a week ago, the same formula showed the race was a dead electoral heat.
The reason for the shift in the analytics might lie in two states. In the electoral treasure troves of Ohio and Florida, Clinton is clearly gaining steam quickly. Just last week, Trump showed slight leads over Clinton in both swing states’ polls-plus forecast. Now, in both states, Clinton has surged back in front as the slight favorite herself.
All of that while word spreads that there is serious upheaval within the Trump campaign, and he continues to dominate the media cycle, for better or worse.
Lately, the polls show worse.
The formal portions of the race now go on hold until the first presidential debate, Sept. 26.
Informally, the topsy-turvy nature of the 2016 presidential election and its ever-shifting polling and predictive analytics will continue. Now, we wait with bated breath for the next bombshell. Perhaps it’ll be a new dump of email leaks from WikiLeaks that Julian Assange promised are coming regarding Clinton and-or the Clinton Foundation.
Or whatever the hell else happens next in the wildest election we’ve ever seen.