Predicting 2016 election is like sneezing with eyes open

Trump and Clinton lead in "share of vote" and "share of voice" -- but like most of Election 2016, there may still be surprises ahead. (PRNewsFoto/LexisNexis)

According to a press release issued by LexisNexis and published by PRNewswire March 11, “predicting the outcome of the 2016 election is like trying to sneeze with your eyes open; it cannot be done”.

As candidates prepare for primaries in the two big battleground states Ohio and Florida whose delegates are up for grabs March 15, polls, media coverage and social media continue to predict different 2016 election outcomes.

Only two-and-a-half percent separates Ohio’s governor John Kasich and Donald Trump in Ohio. Yet Kasich is only third in media coverage of the Republican candidates and barely beating Marco Rubio by just over one percent share of voice.

Candidates-R

Share of Vote (OH)

Share of Voice (OH)

Donald Trump

36.5%

40.01%

John Kasich

34.0%

19.61%

Ted Cruz

16.3%

22.10%

Marco Rubio

7.0%

18.28%

Candidates-D

Share of Vote (OH)

Share of Voice (OH)

Hillary Clinton

57.0%

56.72%

Bernie Sanders

37.0%

43.28%

In Florida, the share of voice and share of vote are closer. According to the release and LexisNexis’s chart below, Trump has 43 percent of the media coverage and 40 percent of the vote.

Candidates-R

Share of Vote (FL)

Share of Voice (FL)

Donald Trump

39.9%

41.70%

Marco Rubio

25.2%

24.85%

Ted Cruz

17.6%

22.91%

John Kasich

8.3%

10.55%

Candidates-D

Share of Vote (FL)

Share of Voice (FL)

Hillary Clinton

63.2%

63.85%

Bernie Sanders

29.0%

36.15%

At the same time, Trump continues to dominate the Election 2016 media conversations with 34.33 percent and Ted Cruz comes in at second place with 24.09 percent share of social media voice.

Voters are also starting to #FeelTheBern. Bernie Sanders total share of social media voice is 14.46 percent, while Hillary Clinton’s share of social media voice is  13.27 percent.

According to the release, thanks in part to unpredictable polling, debate antics, wild media coverage and candidate historics, Election 2016 has produced its fair share of surprises.

For more information about media coverage, visit LexisNexis Biz Blog or connect on Twitter @LexisNexisBiz.

Media data and information is powered by LexisNexis Newsdesk and includes print, broadcast and online media sources. *Polling information is provided by Real Clear Politics.